Market Reviews

Elections that matter



Joe Biden’s reign over America is getting closer and closer to the end. In fact, the election race has already begun, and all contenders are trying to win the hearts and votes of Americans before voting begins. Trump dominates Republican primaries. Several polls show him leading President Joe Biden in swing states. In one, 59% of voters trust him on the economy, compared with 37% for Biden, according to the New York Times. Civil lawsuits and criminal prosecutions have only strengthened Trump’s position. For decades, Democrats have relied on the support of black and Latino voters, but significant numbers of them are leaving the party. In the next 12 months, the failure of any candidate could determine the outcome of the election race and thus turn the world upside down.

America also faces growing hostility abroad, challenged by Russia in Ukraine, Iran and its allied militias in the Middle East, and China across the Taiwan Strait and in the South China Sea. The three countries have little coordination and share a vision of a new international order in which might is right and autocrats are safe.

The biggest threat Trump poses comes from his own country. Having regained power from his 2020 election failure, he will no doubt strengthen his inner feeling that only losers allow themselves to be bound by the norms, customs and sacrifices that make up a nation. While pursuing his enemies, Trump will wage war on any institution that stands in his way, including the courts and the Department of Justice. Trump believes that it is a bad deal for America to spend blood and treasure in Europe. So, he threatened to end the war in Ukraine one day and destroy NATO, possibly violating America’s commitment to treat an attack on one country as an attack on all. In the Middle East, Trump is likely to unconditionally support Israel, even as it fuels conflict in the region. In Asia, he may be willing to make a deal with Chinese President Xi Jinping to give up Taiwan because he doesn’t understand why America would go to war with a nuclear superpower over a tiny island. Trump’s second term will be a turning point for the world. On the one hand, he thinks rationally about what is happening in the world, but on the other hand, this could be his election ploy. One thing is clear – after he was pretty battered and his authority was reduced this year, he will “tear and throw” not only within his own country, but also in the world as a whole. Knowing Trump’s impulsiveness and moral instability, the worst could happen…